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A Modified Logistic Regression Markov Chain Model for Forecasting the College Football Playoff

Laura Albert McLay, Associate Professor, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, UW-Madison

Date and Time: Dec 09, 2015 (12:30 PM)
Location: Orchard room (3280) at the Wisconsin Institute for Discovery Building


Selecting the teams for the College Football Playoff for NCAA Division IA men’s football is a controversial process performed by the selection committee. We present a method for forecasting the four team playoff weeks before the selection committee makes this decision. Our method uses a modified logistic regression/Markov chain model for rating the teams, predicting the outcomes of the unplayed games, and simulating the unplayed games in the remainder of the season to forecast the teams that will be selected for the four team playoff.

You can check out the methodology and results at